Research Timeline
Research has been, and continues to be, a critically important part of our company development.
Our methodology has been critically tested and refined through academic peer review over the past 15 years and published in the leading international scientific journals.
New estimates of flood exposure in developing countries using high-resolution population data
A Nature publication in which we demonstrate the critical importance of having both high resolution hazard and high resolution population data when assessing at-risk populations.
Smith, A., Bates, P., Wing, O., Sampson, C., Quinn, N., Neal, J., 2019
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09282-y
The spatial dependence of flood hazard and risk in the USA
A paper describing our method for simulating the spatial dependence of realistic flood events across the USA.
Quinn, N., Bates, P., Neal, J., Smith, A., Wing, O., Sampson, C., Smith, J., Heffernan, J., 2019
Water Resources Research
DOI: 10.1029/2018WR024205
Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States
A collaboration with the US EPA and The Nature Conservancy to show that: a) previous estimates have significantly underestimated exposure of US population to flood risk; and b) that population and GDP growth are likely to cause this to further increases in future
Wing, O.E.J., Bates, P.D., Smith, A.M., Sampson, C.C., Johnson, K.A., Fargione, J., Morefield, P., 2018.
Environmental Research Letters - vol 13, no. 3
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaac65
Validation of Fathom-US flood hazard model
The first peer-reviewed validation of a continental scale, high resolution flood hazard model; this paper won the prestigious AGU editors choice award in 2018
Wing, O, Bates, P, Sampson, C, Smith A, Johnson, K & Erickson, T. 2017.
Water Resources Research
DOI: 10.1002/2017WR020917
A high‐accuracy map of global terrain elevations
A significant set of systematic improvements to the SRTM terrain dataset produced by a project led by our colleague in Japan, Dai Yamazaki.
Yamazaki, D., Ikeshima, D., Tawatari, R., Yamaguchi, T., O'Loughlin, F., Neal, J.C., Sampson, C.C., Kanae, S., Bates, P.D., 2017
Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL072874
Rethinking flood hazard at the global scale
The first continuous long-term (1973-2012) high resolution simulation of river flow and flooding at the continental scale.
Schumann, GJP, Stampoulis, D, Smith, AM, Sampson, CC, Andreadis, KM, Neal, JC & Bates, PD 2016.
Geophysical Research Letters - vol 43, no. 19, pp. 10249-10256.
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070260
The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis
A collaborative paper that highlights the challenges posed by developing and refining the first generation of global flood hazard models.
Trigg, M, Birch, C, Neal, J, Bates, P, Smith, A, Sampson, C, Yamazaki, D, Hirabayashi, Y, Pappenberger, F, Dutra, E, Ward, PJ, Winsemius, HC, Salamon, P, Dottori, F, Rudari, R, Kappes, M, Simpson, A, Hadzilacos, G & Fewtrell, T 2016.
Environmental Research Letters - vol 11, no. 9, 094014.
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094014
Regional flood frequency analysis at the global scale
The paper describing our method for estimating extreme river flows anywhere on Earth
Smith, A, Sampson, C & Bates, P 2015.
Water Resources Research - vol 51, no. 1, pp. 539-553.
DOI: 10.1002/2014WR015814
A high-resolution global flood hazard model
The paper describing the architecture of our Global Flood Model and validating its performance against local data.
Sampson, CC, Smith, AM, Bates, PB, Neal, JC, Alfieri, L & Freer, JE 2015.
Water Resources Research - vol 51, no. 9, pp. 7358-7381.
DOI: 10.1002/2015WR016954
Fight floods on a global scale
A call for action on global terrain data, published in the most prestigious scientific journal ‘Nature’, that led to our being invited to participate in the White House Climate Data initiative under President Barack Obama.
Schumann, G, Bates, PD, Neal, JC & Andreadis, K 2014.
Nature - vol 507.
DOI: 10.1038/507169e
The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model
A paper describing the challenges and uncertainties associated with the linking of climate models to flood models to assess future flood risk.
Smith, A, Bates, P, Freer, J & Wetterhall, F 2014.
Hydrological Processes - vol 28, no. 5, pp. 2810-2823.
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9815
Investigating the application of climate models in flood projection across the UK
A paper describing the challenges and uncertainties associated with the linking of climate models to flood models to assess future flood risk.
Smith, A, Bates, P, Freer, J & Wetterhall, F 2014.
Hydrological Processes - vol 28, no. 5, pp. 2810-2823.
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9815
Probabilistic flood risk mapping including spatial dependence
A paper describing the characterisation and stochastic simulation of flood events on three converging rivers while considering the spatial dependence (i.e. correlation) of each river with its neighbours.
Neal, JC, Keef, C, Bates, PD, Beven, K & Leedal, D 2013.
Hydrological Processes - vol 27, no. 9, pp. 1349-1363.
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9572
A subgrid channel model for simulating river hydraulics and floodplain inundation over large and data sparse areas
Another critical paper on the path to continental and global scale models, this time describing the representation of rivers smaller than the grid size of the model (the ‘subgrid’ method).
Neal, J, Schumann, G & Bates, P 2012.
Water Resources Research - vol 48, no. 11, W11506.
DOI: 10.1029/2012WR012514
Benchmarking urban flood models of varying complexity and scale using high resolution terrestrial LiDAR data
A paper describing the simulation of flooding in urban areas at ultra-high resolution (50 cm).
Fewtrell, TJ, Duncan, A, Sampson, CM, Neal, JC & Bates, PD 2011.
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth - vol 36, pp. 281 - 291.
DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2010.12.011
A simple inertial formulation of the shallow water equations for efficient two dimensional flood inundation modelling
A hugely influential paper that describes a new mathematical formulation of the equations used to describe the flow of water within 2D flood models such as LISFLOOD-FP. This reduced the time required to simulate a flood event on a computer by an order of magnitude and allowed the concept of high resolution continental and global scale models to be considered for the first time. This paper led to Professor Paul Bates being awarded the ‘Science of Risk’ prize by the Lloyds insurance market in 2012.
Bates, PD, Horritt, MS & Fewtrell, TJ 2010.
Journal of Hydrology - vol 387, no. 1-2, pp. 33 - 45.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.027
Distributed whole city water level measurements from the Carlisle 2005 urban flood event and comparison with hydraulic model simulations
A paper that presented the most comprehensive validation to-date of a simulated city-scale urban flood event using observed water level measurements.
Neal, JC, Bates, PD, Fewtrell, TJ, Hunter, NM, Wilson, MD & Horritt, MS 2009.
Journal of Hydrology - vol 368, pp. 42 - 55.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.01.026
Evaluating the effect of scale in flood inundation modelling in urban environments
Around this time, 2D flood models were beginning to operate at scales applicable to urban environments. This paper offered one of the first critical analysis of key model parameters, such as grid resolution, when simulating floods in urban environments.
Fewtrell, TJ, Bates, PD, Horritt, MS & Hunter, NM 2008.
Hydrological Processes - vol 22, pp. 5107 - 5118.
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7148
Reach scale floodplain inundation dynamics observed using airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery: data analysis and modelling
A paper describing, for the first time, the use of a time series of satellite images of a real flood event on the River Severn to assess the dynamic performance of the LISFLOOD-FP simulation of the event.
Bates, PD, Wilson, MD, Horritt, MS, Mason, D, Holden, N & Currie, A 2006.
Journal of Hydrology - vol 308, pp. 306 - 318.
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.12.028
Remote sensing and flood inundation modelling
An invited commentary on the value of using new forms of remotely sensed data in flood modelling.
Bates, PD 2004.
Hydrological Processes - vol 18, pp. 2593 - 2597.
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.5649
Optimal use of high-resolution topographic data in flood inundation models
A paper describing the assimilation of high resolution topography into 2D flood models.
Bates, PD, Marks, KJ & Horritt, MS 2003.
Hydrological Processes - vol 17, no. 3, pp. 5237 - 5257.
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.1113
A simple raster-based model for floodplain inundation
A seminal paper (with almost 1000 citations in the academic literature) that offers the first description of a grid-based 2D flood model. This format underlies most contemporary 2D flood models, and the engine at the heart of the Fathom models has its origins in the first ‘LISFLOOD-FP’ model described in this paper.
Bates, PD & De Roo, APJ 2000
Journal of Hydrology - vol 236, pp. 54 - 77.
DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00278-X
Integrating remote sensing observations of flood hydrology and hydraulic modelling
An early study demonstrating the potential of remotely sensed satellite data to help with the parameterization and validation of computational flood models.
Bates, PD, Horritt, MS, Smith, CN & Mason, D 1997.
Hydrological Processes - vol 11, no. 14, pp. 1777-1795.
DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199711)11:14<1777::AID-HYP543>3.0.CO;2-E
An initial comparison of two 2-D finite element codes for river flood simulation
Professor Paul Bates compared two different finite element techniques, laying the foundation for future two-dimensional modelling techniques.
Bates, PD, Anderson, MG & Hervouet, JM 1995.
Institution of Civil Engineers Proceedings: Water, Maritime and Energy - vol 112, pp. 238 - 248.
DOI: 10.1680/iwtme.1995.27886
Modelling floodplain flows using a two-dimensional finite element model
Professor Paul Bates’ first published paper describing a 2D computer model of an 11 km stretch of river in the UK.
Bates, PD, Anderson, MG, Baird, L, Walling, DE & Simm, D 1992.
Earth Surface Processes and Landforms - vol 17, pp. 575 - 588.
DOI: 10.1002/esp.3290170604